UK House Prices: Predictions for the Next 5 Years, and Where Next
UK house price predictions for the next 5 years currently point the same way over the full period: growth. The nearest-term call is where they split. Savills forecasts a 2.0% fall this year, building to 18.5% cumulative growth by 2030, while the Office for Budget Responsibility projects steadier growth averaging just over 2.5% a year. Those are modelled projections, not statements of what prices will do.
The observed data is telling a calmer story. The average UK home stands at £272,188 on the latest Land Registry figures, up 2.0% on a year earlier. Underneath that average, London is falling while the North West is growing at 4.7%.
Article updated: September 2026
This guide puts the current forecasts side by side, each with its publication date, then checks the record: what forecasters predicted at past turning points, and what prices actually did. Forecasts are useful context. Their track record is the reason they cannot be more than that.
Are UK House Prices Falling?
No, not nationally. The average UK house price was £272,188 in June 2026, up 2.0% on a year earlier, according to the HM Land Registry UK House Price Index. The annual rate has been slowing through 2026, from 4.0% in April to 3.0% in May and 2.0% in June, but slowing growth is not falling prices.
The regional picture is where it gets interesting. One region is genuinely falling: London, down 2.5% in a year. At the other end, the North West is up 4.7%. The table below shows all eleven regions covered by the monthly index, the nine English regions plus Scotland and Wales, sorted by annual change.
| Region | Average Price (June 2026) | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| North West | £219,922 | +4.7% |
| North East | £165,550 | +4.3% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | £207,948 | +3.6% |
| West Midlands | £234,731 | +3.3% |
| East Midlands | £240,457 | +2.4% |
| Scotland | £195,355 | +2.3% |
| South West | £304,562 | +1.9% |
| Wales | £213,162 | +1.8% |
| East of England | £338,707 | +1.1% |
| South East | £380,380 | +0.3% |
| London | £553,870 | -2.5% |
Every region north of the Midlands grew faster than the UK average in the year to June 2026, and every southern region grew slower. Our city guides for Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle break down what those regional numbers look like at postcode level.
For what is happening on the letting side, our UK rental market guide tracks rents and tenant demand. And if you want to compare confirmed figures rather than forecasts, you can test your knowledge of UK property markets in our daily Higher or Lower game.
What the Forecasts Say: House Price Predictions for the Next 5 Years
Housing market predictions for the next five years have moved a long way in a short time. The forecasts published in late 2025 pointed to modest growth for 2026: Nationwide at 2-4%, Halifax at 1-3%, Savills at 2%. Then, on 1 June 2026, Savills revised its numbers and now expects UK prices to fall this year before recovering. Anyone comparing forecasts needs the publication date next to every figure, because the figures age fast.
Savills House Price Forecast for the Next 5 Years
Savills published its revised mainstream forecast on 1 June 2026. It now forecasts UK house prices to fall 2.0% in 2026, then grow 2.5% in 2027, 5.0% in 2028, 6.0% in 2029 and 6.0% in 2030. Cumulatively that is 18.5% growth in the five years to 2030, which Savills puts at around £67,000 on its own measure of the average home. The same five-year figure stood at 22.2% in its previous forecast, so this was a meaningful downgrade, not a tweak.
| Year | Savills Forecast (Published June 2026) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.0% |
| 2027 | +2.5% |
| 2028 | +5.0% |
| 2029 | +6.0% |
| 2030 | +6.0% |
| Five years to 2030 | +18.5% |
Savills attributes the downgrade to higher mortgage costs hitting affordability. Inflation pressure following the conflict involving Iran pushed mortgage rates up from late February, and a higher than usual number of landlord-owned properties coming to market added supply. Its model assumes CPI inflation of 3.9% at the end of 2026, a Bank Rate of 3.75% held until late 2027 before falling to 2.50% by 2030, and average mortgage rates easing from 4.78% at the end of 2026 to 3.50% by 2030, based on Oxford Economics assumptions.
The regional split follows the same affordability story: the cheapest regions hold up best. The detailed forecast tables have the North East, North West and Yorkshire and the Humber avoiding falls entirely in 2026, while London leads the declines. Over five years, Savills forecasts 25.0% growth for both the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber against 10.6% for London.
| Region | Savills 2026 Forecast | Five Years to 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| North West | 0.0% | +25.0% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 0.0% | +25.0% |
| North East | 0.0% | +23.9% |
| Wales | -0.5% | +23.2% |
| Scotland | -0.5% | +22.6% |
| West Midlands | -2.0% | +19.7% |
| East Midlands | -2.5% | +19.0% |
| South West | -2.5% | +17.9% |
| East of England | -3.5% | +13.9% |
| South East | -3.5% | +13.4% |
| London | -4.0% | +10.6% |
Worth reading this table against the observed Land Registry table further up the page. The three regions at the top of Savills' five-year forecast are also the top three in the observed annual data, though in a different order. The forecast and the real numbers agree on the North-South direction, if not on any specific figure.
Bank of England and OBR House Price Forecasts
There is no official Bank of England house price forecast for the next 5 years. The Bank does not publish one. What it controls is Bank Rate, which shapes mortgage pricing, and Bank Rate has sat at 3.75% since December 2025, according to the Bank's official Bank Rate history.
The closest thing to a Bank view is research from its own economists. Analysis published in November 2025 found that real household incomes explain much of the long-run variation in UK house prices, and estimated that the rise in mortgage rates since 2021 had kept real house prices nearly 10% lower than they would otherwise have been, partly offset by recovering incomes. In plain terms: wages and mortgage rates drive prices, and the rate rises of recent years have been a persistent drag.
The government's official forecaster is the Office for Budget Responsibility. In its March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the OBR projects house price inflation to average just over 2.5% across its forecast period, broadly in line with growth in average incomes. It also estimates that the planning reforms announced in December 2024 will grow the housing stock by 0.5% and reduce the average house price by around 0.8% by 2029. More homes, slightly cheaper homes, is the OBR's read.
What the Lenders' Indices Show
The big lender indices measure mortgage approvals rather than completed sales, so they run ahead of the Land Registry's completed-sale figures. Right now they are reading softer. Nationwide's index put annual growth at 1.6% in August 2026. The index formerly published as the Halifax House Price Index, renamed the Lloyds House Price Index from July 2026, put July prices just 0.1% higher than a year earlier.
Both sit below the Land Registry's 2.0% annual reading for June. That gap is normal. The lender indices are based on their own approvals data while the Land Registry records completed, registered sales, and moves in approvals data feed through to the sold-price figures with a lag.
Will House Prices Go Down in 2027?
Neither Savills nor the OBR projects a fall in 2027. The June 2026 revision forecasts 2.5% growth for 2027, framing it as the start of a slow recovery as mortgage rates settle. The OBR's projection of just over 2.5% average annual growth spans 2027. The revision assumes Bank Rate holds at 3.75% until late 2027, so a rate surprise in either direction would move it.
A forecast a year out has a short shelf life. The late-2025 forecasts for 2026 lasted roughly six months before being rewritten.
UK House Price Predictions for the Next 10 Years
None of the major UK forecasters publishes a ten-year house price forecast: Savills' horizon runs to 2030, the OBR's window covers five years, and the lender outlooks are shorter still. Anything you read claiming to predict UK house prices for the next 10 years is extrapolation, not one of the major published forecasts.
What ten years actually delivers is on record. In June 2016 the average UK house price was £196,106. By June 2026 it was £272,188, growth of 38.8% over the decade, a period that included Brexit, a pandemic, the 2022 mini-Budget mortgage shock and the steep rate rises that followed 2021. The longer 26-year record is in the long-term table further down this page: roughly 249% growth since January 2000.
When Forecasts Miss
Comparing what forecasters predicted with what happened is the most useful test of how much weight a forecast deserves. The record shows misses in both directions, with the biggest ones landing exactly when the answer mattered most. It is also why no forecast can tell you how a single investment property will actually perform.
2020: The Pandemic Paradox
In March 2020 the UK entered lockdown and the housing market was effectively shut for weeks. The recession models came out, and the forecasts pointed firmly down. In June 2020 Savills forecast a 7.5% fall in UK house prices for the year.
What actually happened? UK prices ended 2020 up 7.0% on the Land Registry index, and annual growth went on to reach 12.3% by June 2021. The forecasts were not just too pessimistic. They had the direction wrong.
Lockdown changed what a home was for. People needed offices and gardens, households built up savings and turned them into deposits, and the Stamp Duty holiday added fuel. In the spring of 2020, the recession models pointed the other way.
2005 to 2008: The Soft Landing That Wasn't
In January 2005, with the boom cooling, Halifax predicted a 2% fall in prices for the year. Prices instead rose 6.3% in 2005 and accelerated to 10.4% annual growth by the end of 2006.
Then came the crash. From a peak of £175,052 in September 2007, the average UK price fell to £142,278 by March 2009, a drop of 18.7% in eighteen months. The soft landing never happened, in either direction. For the full story, see our retrospective on the 2008-2009 housing market crash.
2002: A 23-Point Miss
Sometimes a forecast misses without any crisis at all. Going into 2002, Halifax forecast 5% growth for the year, with Nationwide and Abbey National at 5-6%, per a December 2001 forecast round-up. HM Land Registry data shows the market delivered 28.4%. Cheap credit and a self-feeding boom simply ran further than the forecasts allowed for.
2026: A Revision in Real Time
This year offers a live example of how fast forecasts move. In late 2025 the published forecasts for 2026 all pointed up, and Savills' own number was 2% growth. By 1 June 2026 it had cut that to a 2.0% fall, a four-point swing in six months, driven by events no late-2025 model contained.
Meanwhile the observed Land Registry reading for the year to June 2026 was growth of 2.0%. To be fair to the forecast, a calendar-year projection and a June year-on-year reading measure different windows, so the June figure does not settle whether the revised forecast lands. Six months was enough to flip the forecasts from growth to a fall. That speed is the lesson.
- All property types
- Detached
- Semi-detached
- Terraced
- Flats
Source: HM Land Registry House Price Index
| Month | All property types | Detached | Semi-detached | Terraced | Flats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-01 | +6.2% | +3.7% | +5.6% | +7.7% | +7.0% |
| 2006-02 | +6.5% | +3.7% | +5.2% | +8.3% | +8.0% |
| 2006-03 | +6.5% | +4.6% | +5.6% | +7.8% | +7.3% |
| 2006-04 | +7.3% | +5.6% | +6.4% | +9.0% | +7.5% |
| 2006-05 | +7.1% | +4.9% | +6.4% | +8.3% | +8.3% |
| 2006-06 | +7.3% | +5.7% | +6.6% | +8.3% | +8.3% |
| 2006-07 | +7.4% | +5.8% | +6.2% | +9.2% | +7.9% |
| 2006-08 | +7.9% | +6.1% | +7.4% | +9.3% | +8.3% |
| 2006-09 | +8.5% | +7.1% | +8.0% | +9.1% | +9.8% |
| 2006-10 | +9.4% | +7.8% | +8.5% | +10.4% | +10.5% |
| 2006-11 | +9.6% | +8.3% | +9.1% | +10.7% | +10.1% |
| 2006-12 | +10.4% | +9.3% | +10.0% | +11.4% | +10.5% |
| 2007-01 | +10.5% | +9.5% | +10.0% | +11.8% | +10.8% |
| 2007-02 | +10.6% | +10.0% | +10.1% | +11.4% | +11.3% |
| 2007-03 | +10.6% | +9.4% | +9.9% | +12.1% | +11.0% |
| 2007-04 | +10.4% | +9.7% | +9.3% | +11.5% | +11.5% |
| 2007-05 | +10.6% | +9.2% | +9.6% | +11.8% | +12.0% |
| 2007-06 | +10.8% | +10.4% | +9.7% | +11.5% | +12.0% |
| 2007-07 | +10.6% | +10.6% | +9.4% | +10.7% | +12.6% |
| 2007-08 | +10.3% | +10.0% | +9.2% | +10.9% | +11.7% |
| 2007-09 | +10.0% | +9.9% | +8.7% | +10.3% | +11.8% |
| 2007-10 | +9.1% | +9.3% | +7.7% | +9.3% | +11.0% |
| 2007-11 | +8.5% | +8.7% | +7.1% | +8.2% | +11.0% |
| 2007-12 | +7.0% | +7.6% | +5.9% | +6.6% | +8.7% |
| 2008-01 | +5.1% | +4.5% | +3.6% | +4.7% | +9.3% |
| 2008-02 | +3.9% | +3.5% | +2.9% | +3.9% | +6.7% |
| 2008-03 | +2.4% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +2.1% | +5.2% |
| 2008-04 | +0.5% | +0.7% | -0.3% | +0.3% | +2.9% |
| 2008-05 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | +1.7% |
| 2008-06 | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.5% | -2.5% | -0.9% |
| 2008-07 | -4.7% | -5.2% | -4.7% | -4.9% | -2.7% |
| 2008-08 | -7.2% | -7.5% | -7.3% | -7.7% | -5.0% |
| 2008-09 | -9.7% | -9.1% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -8.1% |
| 2008-10 | -11.3% | -11.3% | -11.2% | -11.7% | -9.7% |
| 2008-11 | -13.7% | -14.2% | -13.5% | -13.8% | -12.5% |
| 2008-12 | -14.9% | -14.8% | -14.7% | -14.5% | -14.7% |
| 2009-01 | -15.4% | -13.9% | -15.3% | -15.9% | -16.3% |
| 2009-02 | -15.6% | -15.0% | -15.3% | -16.0% | -16.1% |
| 2009-03 | -15.5% | -14.4% | -16.0% | -16.2% | -15.1% |
| 2009-04 | -14.9% | -14.6% | -14.4% | -15.3% | -15.5% |
| 2009-05 | -14.3% | -13.4% | -14.1% | -14.5% | -15.0% |
| 2009-06 | -12.2% | -11.0% | -12.4% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| 2009-07 | -9.7% | -8.8% | -9.5% | -9.5% | -11.3% |
| 2009-08 | -6.9% | -6.2% | -6.5% | -6.6% | -8.8% |
| 2009-09 | -3.7% | -4.0% | -3.3% | -3.2% | -5.0% |
| 2009-10 | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.5% |
| 2009-11 | +2.2% | +3.3% | +1.9% | +3.0% | -0.3% |
| 2009-12 | +4.4% | +4.1% | +5.0% | +5.1% | +2.7% |
| 2010-01 | +6.5% | +7.4% | +7.2% | +7.4% | +3.3% |
| 2010-02 | +8.0% | +9.7% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +4.1% |
| 2010-03 | +8.7% | +10.1% | +9.3% | +9.1% | +5.7% |
| 2010-04 | +9.1% | +10.5% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +6.9% |
| 2010-05 | +8.1% | +10.0% | +8.2% | +8.3% | +5.6% |
| 2010-06 | +7.6% | +8.4% | +8.0% | +8.0% | +5.5% |
| 2010-07 | +6.8% | +8.7% | +6.8% | +6.6% | +4.9% |
| 2010-08 | +5.7% | +7.5% | +6.2% | +5.1% | +4.0% |
| 2010-09 | +4.6% | +6.6% | +4.8% | +4.4% | +2.5% |
| 2010-10 | +2.8% | +4.5% | +2.7% | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| 2010-11 | +1.2% | +3.1% | +1.7% | -0.2% | +0.4% |
| 2010-12 | +0.4% | +2.9% | +0.2% | -1.1% | -0.2% |
| 2011-01 | -0.1% | +0.7% | -0.4% | -0.9% | +0.7% |
| 2011-02 | -0.9% | +0.3% | -1.7% | -1.8% | +0.3% |
| 2011-03 | -1.3% | 0.0% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -1.0% |
| 2011-04 | -1.1% | -0.1% | -2.0% | -1.6% | +0.1% |
| 2011-05 | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.7% | -0.7% |
| 2011-06 | -2.3% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -3.1% | -1.2% |
| 2011-07 | -2.1% | -2.6% | -2.5% | -2.6% | +0.3% |
| 2011-08 | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.4% | -2.2% | -1.1% |
| 2011-09 | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.2% | -2.4% | -1.1% |
| 2011-10 | -2.0% | -1.6% | -2.1% | -2.6% | -1.3% |
| 2011-11 | -0.7% | -1.4% | -1.0% | -1.0% | +0.9% |
| 2011-12 | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -1.4% | +0.2% |
| 2012-01 | -0.8% | -1.7% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| 2012-02 | -0.6% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -1.2% |
| 2012-03 | +0.2% | -2.1% | +1.1% | +1.2% | +0.2% |
| 2012-04 | -0.2% | -0.4% | +0.1% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| 2012-05 | +0.6% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| 2012-06 | +1.4% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +2.3% | +1.5% |
| 2012-07 | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% | -0.1% |
| 2012-08 | +0.5% | -0.7% | +0.2% | +1.5% | +1.1% |
| 2012-09 | +0.4% | -0.7% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +1.1% |
| 2012-10 | +0.8% | -0.8% | +0.4% | +1.6% | +2.5% |
| 2012-11 | +0.9% | -0.2% | +0.7% | +2.2% | +0.4% |
| 2012-12 | +1.1% | +0.5% | +0.4% | +1.9% | +1.4% |
| 2013-01 | +1.1% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +2.1% |
| 2013-02 | +1.3% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +1.6% | +3.0% |
| 2013-03 | +1.6% | +2.6% | +0.9% | +1.2% | +2.4% |
| 2013-04 | +1.5% | +0.7% | +1.1% | +2.0% | +2.3% |
| 2013-05 | +1.7% | +0.8% | +1.4% | +2.1% | +2.6% |
| 2013-06 | +1.5% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +2.3% |
| 2013-07 | +2.3% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +2.5% | +3.8% |
| 2013-08 | +3.0% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +4.8% |
| 2013-09 | +3.4% | +3.1% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +5.2% |
| 2013-10 | +3.7% | +3.9% | +3.3% | +3.3% | +5.0% |
| 2013-11 | +4.2% | +3.5% | +3.8% | +3.7% | +6.7% |
| 2013-12 | +5.4% | +3.9% | +5.1% | +5.1% | +8.5% |
| 2014-01 | +6.2% | +5.3% | +4.8% | +6.3% | +10.0% |
| 2014-02 | +6.7% | +5.7% | +5.9% | +6.4% | +10.2% |
| 2014-03 | +6.4% | +4.4% | +5.8% | +6.5% | +10.3% |
| 2014-04 | +7.7% | +6.2% | +7.0% | +8.0% | +10.9% |
| 2014-05 | +8.3% | +6.8% | +7.3% | +8.4% | +11.9% |
| 2014-06 | +8.4% | +6.8% | +7.7% | +7.9% | +12.4% |
| 2014-07 | +8.7% | +7.2% | +7.9% | +8.8% | +11.9% |
| 2014-08 | +9.1% | +7.7% | +8.0% | +9.0% | +12.8% |
| 2014-09 | +9.1% | +7.3% | +8.4% | +9.2% | +12.7% |
| 2014-10 | +9.4% | +7.5% | +8.6% | +9.8% | +12.8% |
| 2014-11 | +8.4% | +7.4% | +7.5% | +8.4% | +11.4% |
| 2014-12 | +7.7% | +7.6% | +6.7% | +7.5% | +9.8% |
| 2015-01 | +7.0% | +6.3% | +6.8% | +7.0% | +7.8% |
| 2015-02 | +6.7% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +6.7% | +7.6% |
| 2015-03 | +6.7% | +7.6% | +6.1% | +5.9% | +7.1% |
| 2015-04 | +5.3% | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.2% | +5.4% |
| 2015-05 | +5.3% | +5.3% | +5.4% | +4.9% | +5.4% |
| 2015-06 | +5.2% | +5.4% | +5.2% | +5.5% | +4.2% |
| 2015-07 | +5.5% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +5.3% | +5.3% |
| 2015-08 | +5.2% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +5.1% | +4.8% |
| 2015-09 | +5.3% | +6.1% | +5.2% | +4.9% | +4.8% |
| 2015-10 | +5.6% | +5.7% | +5.7% | +5.8% | +4.7% |
| 2015-11 | +6.8% | +6.8% | +6.7% | +6.9% | +6.4% |
| 2015-12 | +6.9% | +7.3% | +6.9% | +6.9% | +6.0% |
| 2016-01 | +7.8% | +7.4% | +8.0% | +7.7% | +8.1% |
| 2016-02 | +7.7% | +7.6% | +7.4% | +7.7% | +8.2% |
| 2016-03 | +8.4% | +8.2% | +7.4% | +8.6% | +9.8% |
| 2016-04 | +7.9% | +7.1% | +8.1% | +8.3% | +7.9% |
| 2016-05 | +8.0% | +6.8% | +7.6% | +8.5% | +9.0% |
| 2016-06 | +8.2% | +8.3% | +7.6% | +8.0% | +9.1% |
| 2016-07 | +7.5% | +6.9% | +7.3% | +7.8% | +7.9% |
| 2016-08 | +6.5% | +6.1% | +6.4% | +6.7% | +7.0% |
| 2016-09 | +6.1% | +5.5% | +6.5% | +6.1% | +6.4% |
| 2016-10 | +5.6% | +5.8% | +5.6% | +4.8% | +6.8% |
| 2016-11 | +5.3% | +5.8% | +5.2% | +4.5% | +6.2% |
| 2016-12 | +5.2% | +5.0% | +5.0% | +4.8% | +6.1% |
| 2017-01 | +4.8% | +5.4% | +4.3% | +4.2% | +5.3% |
| 2017-02 | +4.9% | +4.9% | +4.7% | +4.2% | +6.3% |
| 2017-03 | +3.6% | +3.4% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +3.4% |
| 2017-04 | +4.9% | +5.9% | +4.3% | +3.6% | +6.5% |
| 2017-05 | +4.3% | +5.2% | +4.4% | +2.9% | +5.1% |
| 2017-06 | +4.2% | +4.0% | +4.1% | +3.5% | +5.6% |
| 2017-07 | +4.5% | +4.9% | +4.3% | +3.3% | +5.8% |
| 2017-08 | +4.9% | +5.0% | +4.7% | +4.5% | +5.9% |
| 2017-09 | +4.7% | +5.1% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.9% |
| 2017-10 | +5.1% | +5.2% | +5.5% | +5.2% | +4.6% |
| 2017-11 | +4.3% | +3.8% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +4.1% |
| 2017-12 | +4.6% | +4.3% | +5.2% | +4.8% | +3.8% |
| 2018-01 | +4.3% | +4.3% | +4.9% | +4.2% | +3.8% |
| 2018-02 | +4.4% | +5.1% | +5.0% | +4.5% | +2.6% |
| 2018-03 | +4.0% | +4.1% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +1.9% |
| 2018-04 | +3.3% | +3.3% | +4.3% | +4.1% | +1.1% |
| 2018-05 | +3.1% | +4.1% | +3.7% | +4.0% | +0.1% |
| 2018-06 | +2.9% | +3.5% | +4.1% | +3.1% | +0.7% |
| 2018-07 | +2.9% | +4.0% | +3.7% | +3.4% | -0.1% |
| 2018-08 | +2.7% | +3.7% | +3.8% | +3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-09 | +2.9% | +3.6% | +4.0% | +3.2% | +0.4% |
| 2018-10 | +2.7% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +0.7% |
| 2018-11 | +2.6% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +3.1% | -0.1% |
| 2018-12 | +2.0% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
| 2019-01 | +1.7% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +1.8% | -0.8% |
| 2019-02 | +1.2% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +1.4% | -1.1% |
| 2019-03 | +1.5% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +1.4% | -0.1% |
| 2019-04 | +1.3% | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| 2019-05 | +1.0% | +1.2% | +1.9% | +1.4% | -1.1% |
| 2019-06 | +0.7% | +1.0% | +1.3% | +1.1% | -0.8% |
| 2019-07 | +0.6% | +0.5% | +1.1% | +0.9% | -0.3% |
| 2019-08 | +0.6% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +1.2% | -1.2% |
| 2019-09 | +0.9% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +1.5% | +0.7% |
| 2019-10 | +0.7% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +1.1% | -0.7% |
| 2019-11 | +0.8% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +1.1% | -1.0% |
| 2019-12 | +0.9% | +1.0% | +1.3% | +1.7% | -0.8% |
| 2020-01 | +1.6% | +0.9% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +0.4% |
| 2020-02 | +1.3% | +1.0% | +1.8% | +2.3% | -0.7% |
| 2020-03 | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +3.0% | +1.6% |
| 2020-04 | +0.7% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +1.0% | -1.6% |
| 2020-05 | +1.1% | +1.5% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| 2020-06 | +2.0% | +2.1% | +2.5% | +2.9% | -0.1% |
| 2020-07 | +1.7% | +2.1% | +2.5% | +2.1% | -0.2% |
| 2020-08 | +2.4% | +2.7% | +3.4% | +2.4% | +0.6% |
| 2020-09 | +3.4% | +4.3% | +4.3% | +3.7% | +0.7% |
| 2020-10 | +4.6% | +5.6% | +4.5% | +5.5% | +1.9% |
| 2020-11 | +6.0% | +6.5% | +5.8% | +7.0% | +4.3% |
| 2020-12 | +7.0% | +8.1% | +7.2% | +8.0% | +3.8% |
| 2021-01 | +6.9% | +5.7% | +7.1% | +8.4% | +6.2% |
| 2021-02 | +7.8% | +6.3% | +8.0% | +9.2% | +7.6% |
| 2021-03 | +8.5% | +6.7% | +8.4% | +10.3% | +8.3% |
| 2021-04 | +7.9% | +6.1% | +8.0% | +9.4% | +8.2% |
| 2021-05 | +8.1% | +7.2% | +7.9% | +10.0% | +7.0% |
| 2021-06 | +12.3% | +10.9% | +11.7% | +14.9% | +11.3% |
| 2021-07 | +6.1% | +5.2% | +6.2% | +6.8% | +6.1% |
| 2021-08 | +8.3% | +7.7% | +8.1% | +9.1% | +8.1% |
| 2021-09 | +10.3% | +8.7% | +10.6% | +12.4% | +8.8% |
| 2021-10 | +6.6% | +7.3% | +6.7% | +6.3% | +5.9% |
| 2021-11 | +7.6% | +7.8% | +8.1% | +7.4% | +6.7% |
| 2021-12 | +7.3% | +7.0% | +7.5% | +7.9% | +6.5% |
| 2022-01 | +8.6% | +10.5% | +9.1% | +8.6% | +5.1% |
| 2022-02 | +8.4% | +10.1% | +9.0% | +7.9% | +5.8% |
| 2022-03 | +7.2% | +9.7% | +8.4% | +6.7% | +2.6% |
| 2022-04 | +10.1% | +11.6% | +10.8% | +10.4% | +6.5% |
| 2022-05 | +10.6% | +11.9% | +11.8% | +10.8% | +6.8% |
| 2022-06 | +6.3% | +8.2% | +7.4% | +5.2% | +3.7% |
| 2022-07 | +13.6% | +14.6% | +14.7% | +15.1% | +8.4% |
| 2022-08 | +11.2% | +11.8% | +11.9% | +12.4% | +7.3% |
| 2022-09 | +8.3% | +9.9% | +9.1% | +8.2% | +4.8% |
| 2022-10 | +11.1% | +10.3% | +12.2% | +12.9% | +7.5% |
| 2022-11 | +8.8% | +8.7% | +9.6% | +10.4% | +4.9% |
| 2022-12 | +7.3% | +7.3% | +8.5% | +8.1% | +4.5% |
| 2023-01 | +5.2% | +5.7% | +6.2% | +5.6% | +2.2% |
| 2023-02 | +4.2% | +5.3% | +4.9% | +4.6% | +0.9% |
| 2023-03 | +2.7% | +3.6% | +3.3% | +2.2% | +1.0% |
| 2023-04 | +1.7% | +2.7% | +2.7% | +0.9% | -0.2% |
| 2023-05 | +0.9% | +1.2% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| 2023-06 | +0.1% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.1% | -1.9% |
| 2023-07 | -0.7% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -1.0% | -2.1% |
| 2023-08 | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -2.3% |
| 2023-09 | -1.7% | -1.6% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -2.1% |
| 2023-10 | -2.1% | -2.5% | -1.7% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 2023-11 | -2.6% | -2.3% | -2.1% | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| 2023-12 | -2.7% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -3.0% | -2.8% |
| 2024-01 | -1.9% | -2.4% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 2024-02 | -1.6% | -3.0% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -1.6% |
| 2024-03 | -0.3% | -1.9% | -0.6% | +0.8% | +0.4% |
| 2024-04 | 0.0% | -2.1% | -0.1% | +1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2024-05 | +0.5% | -0.8% | +0.9% | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| 2024-06 | +0.5% | -1.1% | +0.6% | +1.4% | +0.9% |
| 2024-07 | +0.5% | -0.9% | +0.5% | +1.7% | +0.4% |
| 2024-08 | +0.9% | -0.4% | +1.1% | +1.9% | +1.1% |
| 2024-09 | +1.3% | +1.0% | +1.9% | +1.8% | +0.3% |
| 2024-10 | +2.0% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +2.8% | +1.6% |
| 2024-11 | +2.4% | +1.1% | +2.9% | +3.6% | +1.4% |
| 2024-12 | +3.1% | +3.6% | +3.3% | +3.8% | +1.0% |
| 2025-01 | +3.5% | +3.2% | +4.2% | +4.5% | +1.6% |
| 2025-02 | +4.0% | +3.9% | +4.3% | +5.0% | +2.3% |
| 2025-03 | +5.1% | +3.3% | +5.9% | +7.2% | +3.2% |
| 2025-04 | +1.4% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +1.0% | -0.8% |
| 2025-05 | +2.1% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.7% | -0.3% |
| 2025-06 | +2.8% | +3.6% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +0.6% |
| 2025-07 | +2.5% | +3.1% | +3.0% | +2.6% | +0.9% |
| 2025-08 | +2.1% | +2.7% | +3.2% | +2.4% | -0.3% |
| 2025-09 | +1.9% | +2.2% | +2.5% | +2.7% | -0.2% |
| 2025-10 | +2.1% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +2.6% | -1.5% |
| 2025-11 | +2.7% | +3.3% | +3.3% | +3.6% | -0.2% |
| 2025-12 | +1.9% | +1.5% | +3.0% | +2.9% | -0.7% |
| 2026-01 | +1.4% | +1.3% | +2.6% | +2.5% | -1.4% |
| 2026-02 | +1.7% | +2.6% | +3.1% | +2.0% | -1.8% |
| 2026-03 | +0.3% | +2.6% | +1.9% | +0.3% | -4.8% |
| 2026-04 | +4.0% | +3.4% | +5.4% | +5.8% | +0.4% |
| 2026-05 | +3.0% | +3.4% | +4.6% | +3.9% | -0.8% |
| 2026-06 | +2.0% | +2.3% | +3.4% | +3.0% | -1.6% |
Why Even Good Forecasters Get It Wrong
These are not failures of intelligence or effort. The economists behind these forecasts are skilled professionals using sophisticated models and current property data. The problem is what they are being asked to predict.
They Can't Predict Government Intervention
UK governments of all colours have repeatedly stepped in to support house prices at the first sign of trouble. Help to Buy in 2013 put a floor under a fragile recovery. The 2020 Stamp Duty holiday helped turn a predicted crash into a boom. The mortgage guarantee scheme propped up lending when banks were nervous. None of these appear in a forecast until after they are announced.
They Can't Predict Behavioural Shifts
Models treat housing as a financial asset driven by GDP, interest rates and employment. In 2020, a home briefly became workplace, school and gym in one. The value of a garden or a spare room surged in a way those models never anticipated, because they assume people respond to financial fundamentals, not to a change in what a home means.
They Can't Predict External Shocks
Several of the biggest misses were triggered outside the housing market. A global banking collapse. A pandemic. This year's revision came from a conflict in the Middle East feeding into UK mortgage rates. None of these are variables in a housing model. And 2002 is the reminder that a forecast can miss badly with no crisis at all.
Some investors prefer the 18-year property cycle as a longer-term framework. It has shown some historical validity, but even Fred Harrison, who is credited with calling the 1990 and 2008 downturns using it, acknowledges that exact timing is impossible and that policy intervention can stretch or compress a cycle.
The Cost of Trying to Time the Market
The natural response to unreliable forecasts is to think you can do better. Look at the data yourself, make your own judgement about where the peak or trough is, time your entry accordingly. I've seen this play out many times, including in my own investing career.
Early in my career, I spent considerable time analysing growth data and market cycles. Around 2008, I was convinced London had peaked. The numbers looked stretched, prices were now dropping after having doubled in less than a decade. So I avoided London and bought property elsewhere, thinking I was being clever.
- All property types
- Detached
- Semi-detached
- Terraced
- Flats
Source: HM Land Registry House Price Index
| Month | All property types | Detached | Semi-detached | Terraced | Flats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-01 | +1.2% | -0.9% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +1.9% |
| 1996-02 | +4.5% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +11.0% |
| 1996-03 | +2.4% | +3.2% | +2.2% | +2.0% | +3.0% |
| 1996-04 | +3.1% | +2.1% | +2.3% | +2.4% | +4.7% |
| 1996-05 | +2.4% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% |
| 1996-06 | +3.3% | +3.2% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +4.2% |
| 1996-07 | +3.7% | +3.2% | +2.8% | +2.7% | +5.7% |
| 1996-08 | +4.7% | +4.8% | +4.2% | +4.6% | +5.1% |
| 1996-09 | +6.4% | +6.3% | +6.0% | +5.7% | +7.6% |
| 1996-10 | +7.0% | +6.7% | +6.1% | +7.2% | +7.4% |
| 1996-11 | +8.2% | +7.3% | +7.4% | +8.9% | +8.3% |
| 1996-12 | +8.3% | +7.7% | +8.3% | +8.6% | +8.1% |
| 1997-01 | +10.3% | +10.1% | +9.7% | +10.0% | +11.0% |
| 1997-02 | +9.8% | +10.5% | +8.2% | +9.4% | +11.1% |
| 1997-03 | +11.7% | +10.3% | +10.1% | +11.4% | +13.4% |
| 1997-04 | +12.1% | +12.5% | +11.9% | +12.1% | +12.1% |
| 1997-05 | +14.7% | +16.1% | +14.2% | +13.5% | +15.9% |
| 1997-06 | +14.2% | +16.3% | +14.3% | +15.2% | +12.7% |
| 1997-07 | +16.9% | +17.5% | +16.9% | +17.8% | +16.0% |
| 1997-08 | +16.5% | +17.4% | +16.8% | +16.1% | +16.9% |
| 1997-09 | +18.1% | +19.5% | +18.3% | +17.9% | +18.1% |
| 1997-10 | +18.1% | +18.6% | +18.5% | +18.1% | +18.2% |
| 1997-11 | +18.5% | +22.3% | +19.3% | +17.5% | +18.4% |
| 1997-12 | +19.0% | +20.8% | +19.2% | +18.8% | +18.9% |
| 1998-01 | +17.9% | +20.8% | +18.2% | +18.1% | +17.1% |
| 1998-02 | +16.0% | +16.6% | +17.3% | +15.8% | +15.1% |
| 1998-03 | +17.0% | +17.8% | +17.6% | +16.6% | +16.6% |
| 1998-04 | +17.7% | +19.1% | +18.4% | +17.6% | +16.9% |
| 1998-05 | +14.2% | +14.2% | +14.9% | +14.6% | +13.2% |
| 1998-06 | +15.3% | +13.9% | +15.4% | +14.4% | +16.1% |
| 1998-07 | +13.3% | +14.0% | +14.0% | +12.5% | +13.5% |
| 1998-08 | +13.0% | +14.4% | +13.0% | +12.8% | +13.0% |
| 1998-09 | +11.1% | +11.5% | +11.4% | +11.1% | +10.9% |
| 1998-10 | +10.9% | +11.1% | +11.0% | +9.9% | +11.7% |
| 1998-11 | +9.7% | +9.5% | +10.0% | +8.9% | +10.2% |
| 1998-12 | +8.2% | +7.4% | +7.7% | +7.6% | +8.9% |
| 1999-01 | +7.9% | +6.6% | +7.8% | +6.4% | +9.4% |
| 1999-02 | +8.6% | +9.6% | +8.5% | +8.0% | +9.0% |
| 1999-03 | +8.6% | +8.8% | +8.2% | +7.8% | +9.3% |
| 1999-04 | +8.2% | +8.3% | +7.6% | +8.3% | +8.5% |
| 1999-05 | +10.0% | +9.1% | +8.3% | +9.0% | +11.6% |
| 1999-06 | +10.1% | +11.1% | +9.7% | +10.2% | +10.2% |
| 1999-07 | +12.1% | +11.5% | +10.0% | +12.0% | +13.2% |
| 1999-08 | +14.7% | +11.3% | +12.0% | +14.4% | +16.4% |
| 1999-09 | +17.2% | +15.0% | +13.6% | +15.8% | +20.0% |
| 1999-10 | +18.1% | +16.1% | +15.7% | +17.5% | +19.6% |
| 1999-11 | +20.7% | +18.3% | +17.9% | +21.0% | +21.8% |
| 1999-12 | +22.1% | +19.5% | +18.7% | +21.1% | +24.5% |
| 2000-01 | +23.4% | +24.0% | +22.8% | +23.7% | +23.3% |
| 2000-02 | +26.1% | +24.1% | +23.2% | +26.1% | +27.1% |
| 2000-03 | +25.0% | +25.0% | +23.8% | +25.6% | +25.0% |
| 2000-04 | +28.3% | +26.4% | +25.6% | +26.4% | +30.7% |
| 2000-05 | +26.7% | +28.2% | +26.5% | +25.8% | +27.0% |
| 2000-06 | +26.7% | +24.3% | +24.9% | +25.0% | +28.5% |
| 2000-07 | +24.9% | +25.5% | +24.5% | +23.6% | +25.9% |
| 2000-08 | +23.4% | +23.6% | +23.2% | +20.9% | +25.0% |
| 2000-09 | +20.1% | +20.9% | +20.2% | +19.2% | +20.4% |
| 2000-10 | +18.4% | +20.3% | +19.3% | +17.6% | +18.3% |
| 2000-11 | +17.4% | +17.6% | +15.6% | +14.9% | +19.5% |
| 2000-12 | +15.3% | +15.9% | +14.7% | +13.8% | +16.1% |
| 2001-01 | +14.7% | +11.6% | +12.0% | +13.3% | +16.7% |
| 2001-02 | +12.9% | +13.2% | +13.2% | +12.1% | +13.2% |
| 2001-03 | +12.4% | +9.8% | +10.8% | +10.8% | +14.3% |
| 2001-04 | +8.7% | +8.0% | +7.9% | +8.6% | +9.0% |
| 2001-05 | +11.6% | +7.5% | +8.7% | +10.9% | +13.3% |
| 2001-06 | +10.6% | +7.8% | +8.2% | +9.5% | +12.5% |
| 2001-07 | +10.2% | +7.7% | +8.8% | +9.3% | +11.4% |
| 2001-08 | +11.8% | +9.3% | +9.5% | +12.0% | +12.6% |
| 2001-09 | +11.9% | +9.3% | +10.6% | +11.8% | +12.6% |
| 2001-10 | +14.1% | +10.7% | +11.5% | +14.2% | +15.2% |
| 2001-11 | +13.2% | +10.3% | +13.1% | +13.8% | +13.2% |
| 2001-12 | +13.7% | +10.8% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +15.0% |
| 2002-01 | +13.6% | +12.4% | +13.7% | +12.9% | +14.1% |
| 2002-02 | +13.8% | +9.7% | +11.8% | +13.3% | +15.4% |
| 2002-03 | +14.4% | +12.5% | +13.6% | +14.0% | +15.3% |
| 2002-04 | +16.6% | +13.3% | +15.5% | +14.9% | +18.5% |
| 2002-05 | +16.3% | +14.8% | +16.5% | +15.3% | +17.1% |
| 2002-06 | +17.2% | +14.8% | +15.9% | +16.6% | +18.2% |
| 2002-07 | +18.6% | +15.7% | +17.2% | +18.4% | +19.6% |
| 2002-08 | +18.7% | +15.8% | +18.5% | +18.7% | +18.9% |
| 2002-09 | +19.6% | +16.0% | +19.6% | +19.4% | +20.0% |
| 2002-10 | +19.8% | +16.2% | +19.9% | +19.6% | +20.2% |
| 2002-11 | +21.1% | +19.0% | +20.3% | +21.1% | +21.6% |
| 2002-12 | +21.3% | +19.8% | +22.9% | +22.5% | +20.1% |
| 2003-01 | +22.0% | +18.9% | +20.8% | +23.6% | +21.5% |
| 2003-02 | +21.1% | +19.4% | +22.6% | +21.5% | +20.4% |
| 2003-03 | +19.0% | +18.0% | +20.3% | +19.9% | +18.0% |
| 2003-04 | +16.7% | +15.6% | +18.9% | +17.9% | +15.2% |
| 2003-05 | +15.2% | +14.0% | +16.9% | +17.0% | +13.4% |
| 2003-06 | +12.3% | +13.0% | +15.4% | +13.8% | +10.1% |
| 2003-07 | +11.8% | +9.4% | +13.7% | +13.0% | +10.6% |
| 2003-08 | +8.9% | +7.4% | +10.6% | +10.1% | +7.6% |
| 2003-09 | +8.0% | +7.4% | +9.7% | +9.5% | +6.5% |
| 2003-10 | +7.8% | +5.7% | +8.3% | +9.2% | +6.8% |
| 2003-11 | +6.4% | +3.1% | +7.4% | +8.4% | +5.0% |
| 2003-12 | +6.7% | +3.2% | +6.2% | +7.8% | +6.3% |
| 2004-01 | +5.6% | +3.6% | +6.6% | +6.2% | +5.1% |
| 2004-02 | +6.5% | +4.8% | +6.4% | +8.2% | +5.5% |
| 2004-03 | +7.7% | +4.1% | +6.4% | +8.9% | +7.5% |
| 2004-04 | +8.6% | +4.7% | +8.0% | +11.1% | +7.4% |
| 2004-05 | +8.0% | +2.7% | +6.8% | +9.0% | +8.1% |
| 2004-06 | +10.2% | +4.9% | +8.7% | +11.4% | +10.2% |
| 2004-07 | +9.4% | +4.9% | +8.4% | +11.0% | +9.0% |
| 2004-08 | +10.4% | +6.9% | +9.1% | +11.7% | +10.3% |
| 2004-09 | +10.0% | +5.3% | +8.3% | +11.2% | +10.1% |
| 2004-10 | +8.2% | +4.9% | +7.2% | +9.4% | +8.2% |
| 2004-11 | +8.9% | +5.7% | +7.7% | +9.5% | +9.1% |
| 2004-12 | +6.1% | +4.9% | +5.4% | +7.5% | +5.4% |
| 2005-01 | +6.2% | +3.2% | +4.8% | +7.5% | +6.0% |
| 2005-02 | +5.2% | +1.8% | +3.8% | +5.9% | +5.5% |
| 2005-03 | +4.5% | +1.8% | +4.0% | +5.6% | +4.1% |
| 2005-04 | +4.2% | +1.7% | +3.0% | +4.9% | +4.4% |
| 2005-05 | +3.7% | +4.1% | +3.2% | +4.3% | +3.3% |
| 2005-06 | +2.5% | +1.1% | +2.0% | +4.4% | +1.5% |
| 2005-07 | +1.7% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +1.6% |
| 2005-08 | +1.3% | -0.7% | 0.0% | +2.1% | +1.5% |
| 2005-09 | +1.2% | 0.0% | +0.7% | +2.4% | +0.7% |
| 2005-10 | +0.9% | -1.2% | -0.1% | +1.8% | +0.8% |
| 2005-11 | +0.8% | -0.9% | +0.1% | +2.1% | +0.3% |
| 2005-12 | +3.6% | -0.5% | +1.0% | +4.2% | +4.3% |
| 2006-01 | +3.2% | +1.3% | +2.5% | +4.1% | +3.0% |
| 2006-02 | +3.4% | +1.3% | +2.3% | +4.0% | +3.5% |
| 2006-03 | +4.4% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +5.0% | +4.3% |
| 2006-04 | +4.3% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +4.9% | +4.4% |
| 2006-05 | +5.1% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +5.6% | +5.5% |
| 2006-06 | +6.6% | +5.2% | +4.8% | +6.7% | +7.2% |
| 2006-07 | +6.7% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +7.9% | +6.6% |
| 2006-08 | +7.9% | +6.4% | +7.0% | +8.7% | +7.7% |
| 2006-09 | +8.7% | +7.0% | +6.8% | +8.6% | +9.5% |
| 2006-10 | +10.6% | +9.1% | +8.7% | +10.7% | +11.2% |
| 2006-11 | +9.4% | +8.9% | +8.5% | +10.0% | +9.4% |
| 2006-12 | +11.0% | +11.9% | +10.9% | +11.6% | +10.5% |
| 2007-01 | +11.6% | +9.3% | +9.6% | +11.8% | +12.3% |
| 2007-02 | +13.2% | +11.8% | +11.3% | +12.9% | +14.1% |
| 2007-03 | +13.3% | +11.6% | +11.4% | +13.6% | +13.8% |
| 2007-04 | +13.6% | +12.6% | +11.7% | +14.2% | +13.9% |
| 2007-05 | +14.2% | +11.9% | +12.2% | +14.4% | +14.9% |
| 2007-06 | +13.7% | +12.7% | +12.0% | +13.6% | +14.4% |
| 2007-07 | +16.5% | +15.8% | +14.6% | +15.7% | +17.6% |
| 2007-08 | +16.0% | +14.1% | +13.4% | +15.9% | +16.9% |
| 2007-09 | +15.9% | +14.4% | +13.4% | +15.4% | +17.0% |
| 2007-10 | +15.2% | +15.0% | +13.0% | +14.8% | +16.1% |
| 2007-11 | +15.0% | +15.6% | +13.5% | +14.2% | +15.9% |
| 2007-12 | +12.7% | +12.3% | +11.3% | +11.9% | +13.5% |
| 2008-01 | +11.6% | +13.3% | +10.8% | +11.1% | +11.9% |
| 2008-02 | +9.2% | +10.2% | +8.8% | +9.5% | +9.1% |
| 2008-03 | +7.4% | +8.2% | +7.4% | +7.5% | +7.2% |
| 2008-04 | +5.6% | +8.8% | +5.6% | +5.0% | +5.6% |
| 2008-05 | +4.4% | +6.7% | +5.0% | +4.5% | +4.0% |
| 2008-06 | +1.4% | +3.3% | +2.2% | +2.1% | +0.7% |
| 2008-07 | -1.8% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -1.6% |
| 2008-08 | -5.4% | -2.5% | -4.1% | -5.9% | -5.6% |
| 2008-09 | -7.3% | -5.2% | -7.1% | -7.7% | -7.4% |
| 2008-10 | -10.6% | -8.8% | -10.1% | -11.6% | -10.3% |
| 2008-11 | -13.1% | -12.0% | -13.0% | -13.2% | -13.2% |
| 2008-12 | -14.8% | -12.9% | -13.8% | -14.3% | -15.5% |
| 2009-01 | -15.2% | -13.8% | -15.0% | -16.1% | -14.9% |
| 2009-02 | -15.5% | -15.9% | -15.6% | -16.0% | -15.1% |
| 2009-03 | -15.8% | -15.9% | -16.5% | -17.2% | -14.7% |
| 2009-04 | -16.6% | -18.1% | -16.5% | -17.2% | -16.3% |
| 2009-05 | -15.3% | -15.9% | -15.6% | -16.0% | -14.7% |
| 2009-06 | -12.6% | -13.6% | -13.1% | -12.9% | -12.2% |
| 2009-07 | -10.5% | -11.3% | -9.7% | -9.5% | -11.3% |
| 2009-08 | -7.0% | -7.6% | -6.4% | -6.2% | -7.7% |
| 2009-09 | -3.2% | -5.2% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -3.6% |
| 2009-10 | +0.7% | -0.4% | +1.7% | +2.9% | -0.9% |
| 2009-11 | +3.2% | +1.6% | +3.0% | +4.8% | +2.2% |
| 2009-12 | +6.4% | +4.6% | +6.7% | +7.6% | +5.5% |
| 2010-01 | +10.5% | +8.3% | +11.4% | +13.4% | +8.6% |
| 2010-02 | +11.6% | +12.7% | +13.2% | +14.4% | +9.2% |
| 2010-03 | +13.4% | +15.6% | +15.1% | +15.5% | +11.3% |
| 2010-04 | +14.9% | +16.2% | +15.7% | +16.6% | +13.4% |
| 2010-05 | +12.7% | +15.1% | +14.2% | +15.1% | +10.5% |
| 2010-06 | +12.2% | +14.4% | +13.5% | +13.4% | +10.7% |
| 2010-07 | +12.7% | +15.6% | +13.3% | +14.2% | +11.3% |
| 2010-08 | +10.9% | +12.4% | +12.1% | +11.8% | +9.8% |
| 2010-09 | +8.4% | +12.5% | +10.5% | +10.2% | +6.3% |
| 2010-10 | +6.5% | +8.6% | +7.4% | +7.2% | +5.4% |
| 2010-11 | +5.8% | +8.9% | +8.0% | +5.4% | +5.0% |
| 2010-12 | +5.6% | +8.5% | +6.4% | +5.3% | +5.3% |
| 2011-01 | +3.0% | +6.8% | +3.6% | +2.8% | +2.4% |
| 2011-02 | +2.3% | +6.1% | +2.5% | +1.3% | +2.5% |
| 2011-03 | +2.4% | +5.1% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.5% |
| 2011-04 | +4.3% | +5.0% | +2.6% | +3.7% | +5.1% |
| 2011-05 | +1.1% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +1.3% |
| 2011-06 | +0.5% | -0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +1.1% |
| 2011-07 | +1.0% | -0.9% | -0.3% | -0.1% | +2.4% |
| 2011-08 | +1.5% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +1.7% | +1.7% |
| 2011-09 | +1.8% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2011-10 | +2.1% | +3.1% | +2.4% | +1.7% | +2.2% |
| 2011-11 | +3.1% | +2.5% | +1.6% | +2.5% | +4.0% |
| 2011-12 | +2.4% | +1.5% | +1.8% | +2.3% | +2.9% |
| 2012-01 | +2.2% | -1.2% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +2.8% |
| 2012-02 | +2.5% | +2.4% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +1.6% |
| 2012-03 | +1.1% | -2.8% | +1.0% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| 2012-04 | +1.7% | +0.9% | +2.3% | +2.3% | +1.2% |
| 2012-05 | +6.8% | +5.7% | +5.7% | +7.5% | +6.9% |
| 2012-06 | +7.3% | +6.2% | +6.1% | +8.6% | +7.0% |
| 2012-07 | +4.4% | +4.5% | +4.6% | +5.7% | +3.6% |
| 2012-08 | +5.1% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +5.6% | +5.3% |
| 2012-09 | +4.4% | +2.3% | +3.5% | +4.9% | +4.7% |
| 2012-10 | +6.2% | +2.7% | +3.9% | +6.8% | +6.9% |
| 2012-11 | +6.0% | +3.7% | +5.0% | +7.6% | +5.7% |
| 2012-12 | +7.3% | +5.6% | +5.1% | +8.6% | +7.5% |
| 2013-01 | +5.8% | +5.5% | +5.2% | +6.3% | +5.7% |
| 2013-02 | +7.2% | +2.7% | +4.1% | +7.0% | +8.8% |
| 2013-03 | +7.5% | +7.9% | +7.0% | +7.7% | +7.6% |
| 2013-04 | +7.3% | +5.5% | +5.5% | +7.8% | +7.7% |
| 2013-05 | +6.0% | +5.3% | +5.0% | +6.1% | +6.3% |
| 2013-06 | +5.8% | +5.7% | +5.2% | +5.6% | +6.0% |
| 2013-07 | +7.8% | +5.5% | +5.9% | +7.7% | +8.6% |
| 2013-08 | +8.3% | +6.7% | +7.0% | +8.3% | +8.8% |
| 2013-09 | +10.4% | +8.3% | +7.8% | +10.1% | +11.5% |
| 2013-10 | +9.6% | +8.3% | +8.3% | +9.2% | +10.3% |
| 2013-11 | +11.4% | +8.9% | +9.5% | +10.9% | +12.5% |
| 2013-12 | +12.2% | +8.2% | +10.0% | +11.3% | +13.7% |
| 2014-01 | +14.3% | +11.4% | +11.4% | +13.8% | +15.7% |
| 2014-02 | +14.1% | +12.5% | +12.5% | +13.5% | +15.1% |
| 2014-03 | +15.7% | +11.8% | +12.9% | +15.1% | +17.2% |
| 2014-04 | +17.0% | +16.1% | +16.4% | +17.4% | +17.0% |
| 2014-05 | +18.7% | +15.3% | +16.1% | +18.7% | +19.8% |
| 2014-06 | +19.3% | +16.4% | +17.3% | +19.2% | +20.2% |
| 2014-07 | +19.7% | +19.0% | +19.8% | +20.2% | +19.7% |
| 2014-08 | +20.6% | +19.0% | +19.4% | +20.9% | +21.0% |
| 2014-09 | +18.6% | +17.7% | +18.9% | +19.0% | +18.4% |
| 2014-10 | +18.3% | +17.8% | +18.2% | +19.3% | +18.0% |
| 2014-11 | +16.6% | +17.7% | +17.6% | +17.5% | +15.9% |
| 2014-12 | +14.5% | +16.9% | +15.7% | +15.1% | +13.6% |
| 2015-01 | +13.2% | +14.0% | +14.0% | +13.5% | +12.8% |
| 2015-02 | +13.1% | +13.8% | +14.0% | +13.8% | +12.5% |
| 2015-03 | +12.0% | +13.7% | +13.5% | +12.4% | +11.3% |
| 2015-04 | +9.4% | +10.4% | +10.3% | +9.8% | +8.8% |
| 2015-05 | +8.7% | +9.5% | +10.0% | +8.7% | +8.2% |
| 2015-06 | +8.3% | +10.4% | +10.5% | +9.6% | +7.0% |
| 2015-07 | +8.3% | +8.1% | +8.8% | +8.7% | +7.8% |
| 2015-08 | +7.8% | +9.0% | +9.2% | +8.3% | +6.9% |
| 2015-09 | +8.9% | +11.1% | +10.3% | +9.4% | +8.1% |
| 2015-10 | +9.5% | +11.3% | +11.5% | +11.0% | +7.9% |
| 2015-11 | +11.1% | +11.5% | +11.9% | +12.0% | +10.4% |
| 2015-12 | +11.7% | +14.2% | +14.3% | +13.0% | +10.1% |
| 2016-01 | +13.6% | +13.9% | +15.9% | +15.0% | +12.1% |
| 2016-02 | +13.1% | +15.4% | +16.2% | +15.0% | +11.0% |
| 2016-03 | +14.8% | +17.0% | +16.0% | +16.2% | +13.5% |
| 2016-04 | +12.3% | +13.2% | +14.8% | +13.9% | +10.8% |
| 2016-05 | +12.4% | +14.1% | +14.9% | +14.1% | +10.7% |
| 2016-06 | +11.6% | +14.6% | +13.6% | +12.0% | +10.6% |
| 2016-07 | +10.2% | +13.4% | +13.1% | +11.2% | +8.5% |
| 2016-08 | +8.2% | +10.3% | +10.4% | +8.8% | +7.1% |
| 2016-09 | +7.3% | +7.7% | +9.4% | +8.0% | +6.3% |
| 2016-10 | +6.9% | +7.1% | +7.8% | +5.9% | +7.2% |
| 2016-11 | +5.7% | +7.0% | +6.4% | +4.9% | +5.8% |
| 2016-12 | +5.0% | +5.0% | +4.8% | +4.4% | +5.3% |
| 2017-01 | +4.0% | +5.5% | +4.1% | +3.7% | +4.0% |
| 2017-02 | +4.1% | +2.8% | +2.3% | +2.1% | +5.8% |
| 2017-03 | +2.3% | +2.3% | +3.1% | +1.7% | +2.4% |
| 2017-04 | +4.1% | +4.6% | +2.9% | +2.3% | +5.3% |
| 2017-05 | +2.9% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +1.3% | +3.8% |
| 2017-06 | +2.6% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +1.5% | +3.6% |
| 2017-07 | +2.7% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +1.3% | +3.9% |
| 2017-08 | +3.2% | +1.8% | +2.0% | +2.6% | +4.0% |
| 2017-09 | +2.6% | +3.3% | +2.3% | +2.0% | +2.9% |
| 2017-10 | +2.3% | +2.9% | +2.6% | +2.4% | +2.1% |
| 2017-11 | +1.2% | +0.7% | +2.0% | +1.6% | +0.8% |
| 2017-12 | +0.9% | +1.4% | +1.9% | +1.3% | +0.5% |
| 2018-01 | +0.9% | +0.3% | +1.4% | +0.6% | +0.9% |
| 2018-02 | +0.2% | +1.1% | +2.0% | +1.4% | -0.9% |
| 2018-03 | -0.6% | -0.4% | +0.9% | +0.4% | -1.5% |
| 2018-04 | -0.5% | 0.0% | +2.0% | +1.1% | -1.9% |
| 2018-05 | -0.5% | +1.4% | +1.8% | +1.9% | -2.3% |
| 2018-06 | 0.0% | +2.1% | +3.2% | +1.3% | -1.6% |
| 2018-07 | -0.8% | +2.9% | +1.6% | +1.0% | -2.4% |
| 2018-08 | -1.5% | +0.9% | +0.7% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
| 2018-09 | -1.5% | -0.1% | +0.9% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| 2018-10 | -0.4% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% | -1.3% |
| 2018-11 | -0.4% | +2.3% | +1.3% | +1.3% | -1.7% |
| 2018-12 | -0.8% | 0.0% | +1.2% | +0.2% | -1.6% |
| 2019-01 | -2.0% | +1.6% | +0.2% | -0.5% | -3.5% |
| 2019-02 | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -3.7% |
| 2019-03 | -1.7% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -2.3% |
| 2019-04 | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -0.7% | -2.0% |
| 2019-05 | -3.1% | -2.8% | -2.5% | -2.2% | -3.7% |
| 2019-06 | -2.0% | -1.8% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
| 2019-07 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -1.7% | -1.1% | -1.0% |
| 2019-08 | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.5% | +0.4% | -2.6% |
| 2019-09 | +0.1% | -1.2% | -0.9% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| 2019-10 | -1.5% | -1.9% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -2.2% |
| 2019-11 | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.1% | +0.1% | -2.1% |
| 2019-12 | +1.2% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| 2020-01 | +1.3% | -1.9% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02 | +1.8% | +1.8% | +2.4% | +3.4% | +0.8% |
| 2020-03 | +4.0% | +4.3% | +4.4% | +4.6% | +3.5% |
| 2020-04 | +1.4% | +3.9% | +2.6% | +2.6% | +0.2% |
| 2020-05 | +2.1% | +3.4% | +2.6% | +2.3% | +1.7% |
| 2020-06 | +2.0% | +1.6% | +2.4% | +3.9% | +1.0% |
| 2020-07 | +1.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-08 | +3.5% | +3.9% | +4.5% | +4.2% | +2.9% |
| 2020-09 | +3.4% | +4.3% | +5.3% | +5.5% | +1.6% |
| 2020-10 | +2.9% | +4.2% | +3.6% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| 2020-11 | +5.5% | +6.1% | +6.2% | +7.3% | +4.3% |
| 2020-12 | +3.1% | +5.4% | +5.8% | +6.0% | +0.7% |
| 2021-01 | +3.8% | +5.3% | +5.4% | +5.6% | +2.4% |
| 2021-02 | +3.4% | +2.0% | +3.9% | +3.9% | +3.1% |
| 2021-03 | +3.4% | +1.9% | +3.4% | +4.5% | +3.1% |
| 2021-04 | +2.7% | +2.3% | +4.0% | +3.3% | +2.0% |
| 2021-05 | +3.2% | +3.9% | +4.6% | +4.3% | +2.1% |
| 2021-06 | +4.7% | +5.2% | +4.9% | +6.0% | +4.0% |
| 2021-07 | +2.3% | +4.6% | +1.9% | +0.9% | +3.0% |
| 2021-08 | +4.2% | +6.6% | +4.8% | +3.9% | +3.9% |
| 2021-09 | +2.6% | +4.8% | +4.3% | +3.3% | +1.5% |
| 2021-10 | +3.7% | +8.0% | +5.6% | +2.7% | +3.1% |
| 2021-11 | +3.4% | +6.1% | +4.7% | +2.1% | +3.5% |
| 2021-12 | +3.5% | +5.9% | +4.5% | +2.9% | +3.3% |
| 2022-01 | +4.1% | +8.5% | +6.5% | +4.9% | +2.4% |
| 2022-02 | +4.9% | +10.0% | +7.4% | +5.3% | +3.5% |
| 2022-03 | +3.0% | +10.0% | +7.0% | +4.3% | +0.4% |
| 2022-04 | +6.0% | +9.1% | +8.0% | +7.5% | +4.2% |
| 2022-05 | +6.1% | +10.2% | +9.3% | +7.8% | +3.5% |
| 2022-06 | +6.4% | +11.4% | +9.7% | +6.7% | +4.5% |
| 2022-07 | +8.6% | +10.2% | +13.1% | +13.3% | +4.3% |
| 2022-08 | +6.5% | +8.1% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +3.7% |
| 2022-09 | +6.9% | +10.0% | +9.5% | +8.5% | +4.6% |
| 2022-10 | +6.4% | +5.8% | +8.0% | +9.0% | +4.1% |
| 2022-11 | +5.1% | +6.4% | +7.6% | +8.2% | +2.1% |
| 2022-12 | +4.5% | +6.0% | +7.0% | +6.1% | +2.3% |
| 2023-01 | +3.7% | +5.5% | +6.1% | +4.7% | +1.9% |
| 2023-02 | +2.3% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +3.9% | +0.4% |
| 2023-03 | +0.9% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +0.9% | +0.3% |
| 2023-04 | +0.4% | +1.9% | +1.9% | +0.8% | -0.6% |
| 2023-05 | +0.1% | -0.9% | -0.7% | -0.2% | +0.6% |
| 2023-06 | -2.8% | -2.0% | -2.8% | -2.3% | -3.4% |
| 2023-07 | -2.7% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -2.0% | -3.9% |
| 2023-08 | -3.6% | -2.0% | -2.7% | -3.0% | -4.3% |
| 2023-09 | -2.4% | -3.3% | -2.9% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| 2023-10 | -3.3% | -4.6% | -4.0% | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| 2023-11 | -4.8% | -5.4% | -4.9% | -5.3% | -4.4% |
| 2023-12 | -4.1% | -5.5% | -4.9% | -4.2% | -3.5% |
| 2024-01 | -3.5% | -5.2% | -4.4% | -3.0% | -3.2% |
| 2024-02 | -3.1% | -5.5% | -3.6% | -2.3% | -3.2% |
| 2024-03 | -1.4% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -0.3% | -1.3% |
| 2024-04 | -1.6% | -3.4% | -1.9% | -1.1% | -1.6% |
| 2024-05 | -0.2% | -1.9% | -0.3% | +0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2024-06 | +0.1% | -1.9% | -0.3% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| 2024-07 | -0.3% | -1.5% | -0.5% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
| 2024-08 | +1.2% | -1.2% | +0.4% | +1.5% | +1.5% |
| 2024-09 | +0.2% | +1.8% | +1.7% | +0.9% | -0.8% |
| 2024-10 | +1.0% | +2.4% | +2.4% | +2.1% | -0.1% |
| 2024-11 | +2.2% | +2.0% | +2.7% | +3.5% | +1.4% |
| 2024-12 | +1.4% | +2.6% | +2.1% | +2.9% | +0.2% |
| 2025-01 | +2.3% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +4.1% | +0.7% |
| 2025-02 | +2.7% | +4.3% | +4.1% | +4.2% | +1.3% |
| 2025-03 | +1.2% | +0.7% | +3.5% | +3.0% | -0.5% |
| 2025-04 | +2.9% | +6.5% | +5.2% | +3.9% | +1.3% |
| 2025-05 | +2.2% | +5.3% | +4.6% | +3.3% | +0.5% |
| 2025-06 | +2.0% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +3.9% | -0.1% |
| 2025-07 | +2.1% | +2.5% | +2.7% | +2.5% | +1.6% |
| 2025-08 | +0.1% | +1.0% | +2.5% | +2.0% | -1.7% |
| 2025-09 | -0.2% | -0.5% | +0.8% | +1.4% | -1.4% |
| 2025-10 | -0.8% | +0.5% | +1.8% | +1.5% | -3.0% |
| 2025-11 | -0.5% | +1.0% | +2.3% | +2.4% | -3.0% |
| 2025-12 | -1.4% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +1.1% | -4.1% |
| 2026-01 | -1.9% | -1.3% | +0.4% | +0.8% | -4.1% |
| 2026-02 | -2.8% | +0.1% | +0.4% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| 2026-03 | -1.6% | +3.0% | +2.8% | +1.7% | -5.1% |
| 2026-04 | -2.3% | -2.0% | +0.3% | +0.6% | -4.7% |
| 2026-05 | -3.1% | -1.8% | +0.6% | 0.0% | -5.8% |
| 2026-06 | -2.5% | -0.7% | +0.6% | -0.3% | -4.7% |
That property I bought in 2008 in a low value low growth area? It's worth roughly the same today as it was then. Meanwhile, London property has delivered massive gains over the same period despite the crash, despite Brexit, despite everything. If I'd bought in London when I thought it was "too expensive", I'd have been through the 2008 crash, yes. But I'd also have captured all the recovery and growth since.
The lesson isn't that London is always the right choice. It's that trying to time peaks and troughs cost me significant capital appreciation. I was trying to be smart when I should have been thinking long-term. That's my experience, everybody's is different, and it isn't financial advice. My takeaway was to set realistic property investment goals that don't depend on perfect timing, and to weigh fundamentals over market cycles.
What to Focus On Instead of Predictions
If forecasts are unreliable and timing is close to impossible, what do experienced investors actually look at? The fundamentals. These checks take less time than reading most forecast reports, and they describe what is happening on the ground rather than what a model expects.
1. Local employment data: Visit Nomis and check employment rates, unemployment trends, and dominant industries. Populations follow jobs, and jobs create rental demand. Simple as that. Is employment growing or declining? Which industries dominate, and are they expanding? Our location guides for cities like Stoke, Leicester and Bradford break these fundamentals down.
2. Population trends: Check ONS data for population growth or decline. An area might have strong employment today, but if the population is shrinking or ageing, long-term demand weakens regardless of what any five-year forecast says.
3. Price-to-earnings ratio: Divide average house prices by average local earnings (Nomis has the earnings figures too). My rule of thumb from twenty years of doing this: at 8-10 times local earnings, prices are stretched against the people who live there; at 4-6 times, local incomes can still carry them. Instead of asking "will prices rise or fall," ask "are prices too high for local incomes?" A listing described as below market value still needs checking against recent like-for-like sold prices, and you can look those up free through the Land Registry price paid search; a national forecast cannot prove the discount.
4. Rental yield reality check: Take current asking rents and the prices of buy to let property for sale and you can work out a gross yield. Our buy-to-let calculator shows the calculation. Running the numbers again at a higher interest rate and with a two-month void shows how the projected cash flow changes.
For me, the rental income always has to cover the costs. Not negotiable. I target a combined return of around 10% with a minimum 10-year holding period, because the rental income is what lets you hold a property through whatever the forecasters failed to see coming. For me, when weighing whether buy-to-let is worth it in any market, whether the cashflow holds is the question that decides it.
The Long-Term Record: 2000 to 2026
One number puts every forecast on this page in context.
In January 2000, the average UK house price was £77,950. In June 2026, the latest month published, it was £272,188. That is roughly 249% growth over 26 years, through the 2008 crash, Brexit, the pandemic, the mini-Budget and the wrong forecasts made along the way.
UK House Price Growth 2000-2026
Land Registry average prices at January of each milestone year, with June for the latest 2026 figure. Growth is measured from the January 2000 starting point.
| Year | Average UK House Price | Growth from 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | £77,950 | - |
| 2005 | £138,759 | +78% |
| 2010 | £154,268 | +98% |
| 2015 | £175,636 | +125% |
| 2020 | £213,657 | +174% |
| 2026 | £272,188 | +249% |
Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2021. This data is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Milestone figures taken from the UK House Price Index monthly series at this article's last update.
The market is cyclical. Prices rose, fell and rose again across those 26 years. Look at the low points: the 2009 trough of £142,278 was almost double the January 2000 average, and no month since has been lower.
For investors with a 10-year-plus horizon, that long-run record has mattered more than any individual year's forecast. Whether 2026 ends at Savills' minus 2% or somewhere else entirely may matter far less in 2036 than location, strategy and the ability to hold through the noise.
The investors I know who've built genuine wealth through property didn't do it by timing markets. They bought decent properties in decent locations, made sure the cashflow worked, and held for 15-20 years. They lived through the 2008 crash and the Brexit years, kept collecting rent and kept paying down mortgages. Looking back, the exact year they bought matters far less than the fact they bought and held.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are house prices falling in the UK right now?
Not nationally. The Land Registry put the average UK price at £272,188 in June 2026, up 2.0% on a year earlier, though the annual rate has slowed from 4.0% in April. London is the exception, down 2.5% in a year, while the North West leads at +4.7%. The more current lender indices are softer, with Nationwide reading +1.6% in August 2026.
Will house prices go down in 2027?
Neither Savills' June 2026 revision nor the OBR's March 2026 outlook says so. The revision forecasts 2.5% growth for 2027, and the OBR projects growth averaging just over 2.5% a year. Both rest on interest-rate assumptions, and the 2026 revision showed how quickly a consensus can flip when those assumptions break.
What are the house price predictions for the next 5 years?
The most recent major forecast is Savills' June 2026 revision: minus 2.0% in 2026, then +2.5%, +5.0%, +6.0% and +6.0%, totalling 18.5% growth by 2030, with the North West and Yorkshire strongest at 25% and London weakest at 10.6%. The OBR projects around 2.5% a year. The record documented on this page shows forecasts missing the major turning points, so the dates on those figures matter as much as the figures.
What about UK house price predictions for the next 10 years?
None of the major forecasters publishes one. Savills forecasts to 2030 and the OBR's window is five years. The only honest ten-year evidence is historical: the decade to June 2026 delivered 38.8% growth, from £196,106 to £272,188, and the 26-year record is roughly 249%.
Which regions are forecast to perform best over the next 5 years?
In Savills' June 2026 forecast, the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber lead at 25.0% growth by 2030, with the North East at 23.9%, Wales at 23.2% and London last at 10.6%. The observed data currently points the same way at the top: the North West leads the year to June 2026 at +4.7%. It diverges in the middle, where the East Midlands, forecast at 19.0% over five years, grew 2.4% over the past year.
Can a forecast tell you whether now is a good time to buy a house?
No. That question is exactly what a forecast cannot answer, and the timing record on this page shows professional models missing the big turns in both directions. The evidence that actually bears on an individual purchase is current: the price against local sold prices, the rent against the mortgage payment, local employment and population trends, and how the sums look if rates move. In my own investing I stopped trying to call peaks after 2008 taught me an expensive lesson, but that is my experience, and everybody's situation is different.
Should you wait for house prices to fall before buying?
Waiting is a forecast of its own: it assumes prices will be lower later. The record on this page shows that call going wrong in both directions. The 2020 forecasts pointed down and prices rose 7.0%; in 2005 the predicted dip became two more years of growth before the crash actually landed in 2008. The observed data today shows the national average up 2.0% in a year, with London down 2.5%. My own attempt at waiting for the right moment is further up this page, and it cost me. That's my experience, everybody's is different, and it isn't financial advice. The checks that bear on the decision are the local ones above: sold prices, rents against costs, jobs.
What makes a house price forecast unreliable?
Watch for precise percentages years ahead, no acknowledgement of government intervention risk, a "return to normal" assumption with normal left undefined, the UK treated as one market, and pure extrapolation from past patterns. A forecast that publishes its assumptions, as the June 2026 forecast does with its rate and inflation inputs, at least shows you what has to break before the number changes.
How do house price forecasts affect mortgage rates?
They don't. The relationship runs the other way: forecasters estimate where mortgage rates might go and build their price forecasts on top. The June 2026 forecast assumes mortgage rates easing from 4.78% to 3.50% by 2030, so if rates follow a different path, the price forecast moves with them. The practical inputs investors work with are today's rates and how a deal holds up if they rise 1-2%.
Ready to buy property?
Browse investment properties with prices and gross yields shown for each opportunity.
Get property alerts